Erovnuli Liga · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 16:00. Final score 0–3 (half-time 0–3). Before kick-off we rated it 53% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Dinamo Tbilisi at 43%, the draw at 28% and Rustavi at 28%, from expected goals of 1.28 and 0.98.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 46% | 47% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 54% | 53% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Dinamo Tbilisi 2.10, draw 3.20, Rustavi 3.10.
The league sets the starting point. Erovnuli Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dinamo Tbilisi have 12 in 20 this season (5 of 10 at home), Rustavi 9 in 20 (4 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.28 for Dinamo Tbilisi and 0.98 for Rustavi. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Tbilisi | 20 | 60% | 25% | 65% |
| Rustavi | 20 | 45% | 5% | 50% |
More: Dinamo Tbilisi season stats · Rustavi season stats · Erovnuli Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.