Primera · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 22:30. Final score 1–3 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 51% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Deportes Limache at 50%, the draw at 27% and Universidad de Chile at 23%, from expected goals of 1.45 and 0.9.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58% | 51% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 42% | 49% | +7% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 53% | -6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Deportes Limache 3.50, draw 3.60, Universidad de Chile 1.91.
The league sets the starting point. Primera has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Deportes Limache have 13 in 17 this season (6 of 7 at home), Universidad de Chile 7 in 18 (3 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.45 for Deportes Limache and 0.9 for Universidad de Chile. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Limache | 17 | 76% | 59% | 65% |
| Universidad de Chile | 18 | 39% | 17% | 39% |
More: Deportes Limache season stats · Universidad de Chile season stats · Primera table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.