Liga I · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 16:30. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 58% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | No |
The result model puts Csikszereda at 46%, the draw at 28% and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at 26%, from expected goals of 1.33 and 0.91.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 43% | 42% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 57% | 58% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 50% | 0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Csikszereda 2.90, draw 3.20, Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2.30.
The league sets the starting point. Liga I has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Csikszereda have 2 in 4 this season (0 of 1 at home), Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0 in 4 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 39%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 48% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.33 for Csikszereda and 0.91 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Csikszereda | 4 | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 4 | 0% | 0% | 25% |
More: Csikszereda season stats · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe season stats · Liga I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.