Primera Nacional · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 20:30. Final score 3–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 73% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 73% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 88% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 34% | 66% | No |
The result model puts Colon Santa Fe at 54%, the draw at 31% and Patronato at 15%, from expected goals of 1.2 and 0.48.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 35% | 27% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 73% | +8% |
| Both teams to score | 2.62 | 35% | 34% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Colon Santa Fe 1.70, draw 3.25, Patronato 6.00.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Colon Santa Fe have 7 in 24 this season (4 of 12 at home), Patronato 5 in 23 (2 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 30% and 24%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 28%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 28%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 24%, from expected goals of 1.2 for Colon Santa Fe and 0.48 for Patronato. Folding in 30% of that view gives 27%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colon Santa Fe | 24 | 29% | 13% | 42% |
| Patronato | 23 | 22% | 9% | 39% |
More: Colon Santa Fe season stats · Patronato season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.