Primera Clausura · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 20:00. Final score 2–3 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 60% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | No |
The result model puts Club Guarani at 62%, the draw at 25% and Rubio NU at 13%, from expected goals of 1.6 and 0.59.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 42% | 40% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58% | 60% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 42% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Club Guarani 1.80, draw 3.10, Rubio NU 4.20.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Clausura has produced over 2.5 goals in 42% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Club Guarani have 11 in 26 this season (6 of 13 at home), Rubio NU 7 in 26 (4 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 35%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 40%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.6 for Club Guarani and 0.59 for Rubio NU. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Guarani | 26 | 42% | 23% | 46% |
| Rubio NU | 26 | 27% | 19% | 23% |
More: Club Guarani season stats · Rubio NU season stats · Primera Clausura table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.