1. Lig · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 19:30. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 52% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Bursaspor at 47%, the draw at 25% and Iğdır FK at 29%, from expected goals of 1.61 and 1.22.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 53% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 47% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 52% | +8% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Bursaspor 1.53, draw 4.10, Iğdır FK 4.75.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Lig has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bursaspor have 0 in 1 this season, Iğdır FK 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 51% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.61 for Bursaspor and 1.22 for Iğdır FK. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursaspor | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Iğdır FK | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Iğdır FK season stats · 1. Lig table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.