Damallsvenskan (W) · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 13:00. Final score 0–6 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 70% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Brommapojkarna W at 25%, the draw at 21% and Häcken W at 54%, from expected goals of 1.36 and 2.07.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 70% | +5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 35% | 30% | -5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 54% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Brommapojkarna W 10.00, draw 5.50, Häcken W 1.22.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 66% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Brommapojkarna W have 10 in 13 this season (5 of 6 at home), Häcken W 10 in 13 (6 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 71% and 71%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 71% and 71%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 70%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 71%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 1.36 for Brommapojkarna W and 2.07 for Häcken W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 70%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brommapojkarna W | 13 | 77% | 23% | 62% |
| Häcken W | 13 | 77% | 38% | 54% |
More: Brommapojkarna W season stats · Häcken W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.