J2 League · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 10:00. Final score 0–4 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 52% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Blaublitz Akita at 49%, the draw at 27% and Kataller Toyama at 24%, from expected goals of 1.39 and 0.87.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 42% | 48% | +6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58% | 52% | -6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 56% | +6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Blaublitz Akita 2.75, draw 3.10, Kataller Toyama 2.55.
The league sets the starting point. J2 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Blaublitz Akita have 0 in 1 this season, Kataller Toyama 0 in 1 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 42%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 52% and 40%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.39 for Blaublitz Akita and 0.87 for Kataller Toyama. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaublitz Akita | 1 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Kataller Toyama | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Blaublitz Akita season stats · Kataller Toyama season stats · J2 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.