Liga Profesional · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 23:00. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 66% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 66% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | 87% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 38% | 62% | no pick |
The result model puts Belgrano Cordoba at 39%, the draw at 31% and Independ. Rivadavia at 30%, from expected goals of 1.06 and 0.89.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 36% | 34% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 64% | 66% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | 42% | 38% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Belgrano Cordoba 2.00, draw 3.10, Independ. Rivadavia 4.33.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Belgrano Cordoba have 8 in 24 this season (4 of 11 at home), Independ. Rivadavia 12 in 21 (3 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 34% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 37%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 35%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 31%, from expected goals of 1.06 for Belgrano Cordoba and 0.89 for Independ. Rivadavia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 34%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgrano Cordoba | 24 | 33% | 17% | 38% |
| Independ. Rivadavia | 21 | 57% | 19% | 71% |
More: Belgrano Cordoba season stats · Independ. Rivadavia season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.