National League · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 61% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Barrow at 43%, the draw at 23% and AFC Hornchurch at 33%, from expected goals of 1.69 and 1.46.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 60% | +12% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 40% | -12% |
| Both teams to score | 1.95 | 48% | 58% | +10% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Barrow 1.75, draw 4.00, AFC Hornchurch 3.50.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Barrow have 0 in 1 this season, AFC Hornchurch 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 62% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.69 for Barrow and 1.46 for AFC Hornchurch. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| AFC Hornchurch | 1 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
More: Barrow season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.