National League · Saturday, 15 August 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 57% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | no pick |
The result model puts Barrow at 59%, the draw at 22% and AFC Hornchurch at 19%, from expected goals of 2 and 1.06.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Barrow have 0 in 1 this season, AFC Hornchurch 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 2 for Barrow and 1.06 for AFC Hornchurch. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| AFC Hornchurch | 1 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
More: Barrow season stats · AFC Hornchurch season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.