Brasileirao (W) · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 01:00. Final score 2–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 52% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Atlético Mineiro W at 26%, the draw at 25% and Gremio W at 49%, from expected goals of 1.06 and 1.56.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 52% | +8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 48% | -8% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 53% | +9% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Atlético Mineiro W 4.20, draw 3.30, Gremio W 1.73.
The league sets the starting point. Brasileirao (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Atlético Mineiro W have 6 in 15 this season (3 of 7 at home), Gremio W 8 in 15 (5 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.06 for Atlético Mineiro W and 1.56 for Gremio W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Mineiro W | 15 | 40% | 20% | 40% |
| Gremio W | 15 | 53% | 13% | 40% |
More: Atlético Mineiro W season stats · Gremio W season stats · Brasileirao (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.