Serie B · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 20:00. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 59% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 84% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | No |
The result model puts Atletico Goianiense at 51%, the draw at 27% and Vila Nova at 22%, from expected goals of 1.43 and 0.85.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 41% | 41% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 59% | 59% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | 46% | 50% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Atletico Goianiense 1.95, draw 3.40, Vila Nova 4.00.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Atletico Goianiense have 8 in 21 this season (5 of 11 at home), Vila Nova 9 in 21 (3 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 40% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 40%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.43 for Atletico Goianiense and 0.85 for Vila Nova. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Goianiense | 21 | 38% | 10% | 57% |
| Vila Nova | 21 | 43% | 14% | 52% |
More: Atletico Goianiense season stats · Vila Nova season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.