Primera Nacional · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 00:30. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 76% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 24% | 76% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 8% | 92% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 36% | 64% | No |
The result model puts Atletico DE Rafaela at 45%, the draw at 34% and Defensores De Belgrano at 21%, from expected goals of 1.02 and 0.6.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 28% | 24% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 72% | 76% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 2.50 | 38% | 36% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Atletico DE Rafaela 3.00, draw 2.75, Defensores De Belgrano 2.75.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Atletico DE Rafaela have 5 in 24 this season (3 of 12 at home), Defensores De Belgrano 6 in 23 (4 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 26% and 29%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 28%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 25%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 22%, from expected goals of 1.02 for Atletico DE Rafaela and 0.6 for Defensores De Belgrano. Folding in 30% of that view gives 24%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico DE Rafaela | 24 | 21% | 8% | 29% |
| Defensores De Belgrano | 23 | 26% | 0% | 39% |
More: Atletico DE Rafaela season stats · Defensores De Belgrano season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.