Liga Profesional · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 18:30. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 75% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 24% | 76% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% | 89% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 37% | 63% | No |
The result model puts Aldosivi at 26%, the draw at 35% and Tigre at 38%, from expected goals of 0.68 and 0.89.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 28% | 24% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 72% | 76% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 2.25 | 41% | 37% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Aldosivi 3.10, draw 2.70, Tigre 2.80.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Aldosivi have 4 in 20 this season (1 of 9 at home), Tigre 5 in 20 (3 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 26% and 30%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 29%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 26%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 21%, from expected goals of 0.68 for Aldosivi and 0.89 for Tigre. Folding in 30% of that view gives 24%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Aldosivi season stats · Tigre season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.