Primera Nacional · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 19:00. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 73% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 73% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 9% | 91% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 38% | 62% | No |
The result model puts Agropecuario at 33%, the draw at 35% and Ciudad de Bolívar at 32%, from expected goals of 0.83 and 0.8.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 30% | 27% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 70% | 73% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 2.62 | 35% | 38% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Agropecuario 1.85, draw 3.10, Ciudad de Bolívar 5.00.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Agropecuario have 8 in 24 this season (4 of 12 at home), Ciudad de Bolívar 6 in 24 (2 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 31% and 26%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 29%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 22%, from expected goals of 0.83 for Agropecuario and 0.8 for Ciudad de Bolívar. Folding in 30% of that view gives 27%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agropecuario | 24 | 33% | 8% | 42% |
| Ciudad de Bolívar | 24 | 25% | 13% | 42% |
More: Agropecuario season stats · Ciudad de Bolívar season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.