Damallsvenskan (W) · Friday, 14 August 2026 · 18:00. Final score 2–3 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 63% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Växjö W at 69%, the draw at 18% and Djurgården W at 13%, from expected goals of 2.29 and 0.89.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 63% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 39% | 37% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 63% | 53% | -10% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Växjö W 2.60, draw 3.70, Djurgården W 2.15.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 66% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Växjö W have 9 in 13 this season (5 of 7 at home), Djurgården W 7 in 13 (5 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 63%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 68% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 2.29 for Växjö W and 0.89 for Djurgården W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Växjö W | 13 | 69% | 31% | 38% |
| Djurgården W | 13 | 54% | 23% | 38% |
More: Växjö W season stats · Djurgården W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.