PSL · Friday, 14 August 2026 · 18:30. Final score 3–1 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 73% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 73% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10% | 90% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 39% | 61% | No |
The result model puts Stellenbosch at 36%, the draw at 31% and Marumo Gallants at 33%, from expected goals of 1 and 0.95.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 35% | 27% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 73% | +8% |
| Both teams to score | 2.38 | 39% | 39% | 0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Stellenbosch 1.83, draw 3.00, Marumo Gallants 4.33.
The league sets the starting point. PSL has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Stellenbosch have 1 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Marumo Gallants 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 30% and 29%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 27% and 30%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 29%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 26%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 31%, from expected goals of 1 for Stellenbosch and 0.95 for Marumo Gallants. Folding in 30% of that view gives 27%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stellenbosch | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Marumo Gallants | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Stellenbosch season stats · Marumo Gallants season stats · PSL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.