2. Liga · Friday, 14 August 2026 · 19:30. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 53% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts SKN ST. Polten at 32%, the draw at 25% and FC BW Linz at 43%, from expected goals of 1.25 and 1.48.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 54% | 53% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 46% | 47% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 48% | -10% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: SKN ST. Polten 3.00, draw 3.40, FC BW Linz 2.25.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SKN ST. Polten have 0 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), FC BW Linz 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 57% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.25 for SKN ST. Polten and 1.48 for FC BW Linz. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKN ST. Polten | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| FC BW Linz | 2 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
More: SKN ST. Polten season stats · FC BW Linz season stats · 2. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.