Cymru Premier · Friday, 14 August 2026 · 19:45. Final score 0–3 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 52% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 56% | No |
The result model puts Haverfordwest County AFC at 33%, the draw at 25% and Penybont at 41%, from expected goals of 1.29 and 1.46.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 48% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 52% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 49% | 44% | -5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Haverfordwest County AFC 3.00, draw 3.30, Penybont 2.15.
The league sets the starting point. Cymru Premier has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Haverfordwest County AFC have 0 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Penybont 1 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 50% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 27%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.29 for Haverfordwest County AFC and 1.46 for Penybont. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haverfordwest County AFC | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Penybont | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
More: Haverfordwest County AFC season stats · Penybont season stats · Cymru Premier table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.