Primera Clausura · Friday, 14 August 2026 · 22:30. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 50% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Deportivo Recoleta at 64%, the draw at 20% and 2 de Mayo at 16%, from expected goals of 2.12 and 0.96.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 50% | +6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 50% | -6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 48% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Deportivo Recoleta 2.50, draw 3.10, 2 de Mayo 2.50.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Clausura has produced over 2.5 goals in 42% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Deportivo Recoleta have 17 in 26 this season (8 of 13 at home), 2 de Mayo 10 in 26 (6 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 2.12 for Deportivo Recoleta and 0.96 for 2 de Mayo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Recoleta | 26 | 65% | 38% | 73% |
| 2 de Mayo | 26 | 38% | 15% | 46% |
More: Deportivo Recoleta season stats · 2 de Mayo season stats · Primera Clausura table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.