First League · Friday, 14 August 2026 · 19:15. Final score 4–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 55% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts CSKA 1948 at 45%, the draw at 27% and Cherno More Varna at 28%, from expected goals of 1.37 and 1.01.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 45% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 55% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 49% | 43% | -6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: CSKA 1948 1.80, draw 3.30, Cherno More Varna 5.00.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. CSKA 1948 have 4 in 4 this season (2 of 2 at home), Cherno More Varna 2 in 4 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 43%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 51% and 40%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.37 for CSKA 1948 and 1.01 for Cherno More Varna. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA 1948 | 4 | 100% | 50% | 100% |
| Cherno More Varna | 4 | 50% | 25% | 50% |
More: CSKA 1948 season stats · Cherno More Varna season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.