NB I · Friday, 14 August 2026 · 16:30. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 61% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Budapest Honved at 45%, the draw at 23% and Vasas at 32%, from expected goals of 1.75 and 1.46.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 61% | +6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45% | 39% | -6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 61% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Budapest Honved 2.45, draw 3.30, Vasas 2.50.
The league sets the starting point. NB I has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Budapest Honved have 2 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), Vasas 2 in 3 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.75 for Budapest Honved and 1.46 for Vasas. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budapest Honved | 3 | 67% | 67% | 100% |
| Vasas | 3 | 67% | 67% | 33% |
More: NB I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.