Primera Division · Friday, 14 August 2026 · 21:00. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 51% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | no pick |
The result model puts Atletico Grau at 48%, the draw at 26% and Comerciantes Unidos at 26%, from expected goals of 1.5 and 1.04.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.40 | 39% | 51% | +12% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 49% | -12% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | 46% | 55% | +8% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Atletico Grau 2.35, draw 3.10, Comerciantes Unidos 3.10.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Atletico Grau have 6 in 21 this season (4 of 10 at home), Comerciantes Unidos 10 in 21 (6 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.5 for Atletico Grau and 1.04 for Comerciantes Unidos. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Grau | 21 | 29% | 19% | 29% |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 21 | 48% | 38% | 62% |
More: Atletico Grau season stats · Comerciantes Unidos season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.