Eerste Divisie · Friday, 14 August 2026 · 19:00. Final score 3–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 68% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 66% | 34% | Yes |
The result model puts Almere City FC at 43%, the draw at 24% and Jong PSV U21 at 33%, from expected goals of 1.67 and 1.44.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 72% | 68% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 28% | 32% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | 66% | 66% | +0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Almere City FC 1.70, draw 4.33, Jong PSV U21 4.20.
The league sets the starting point. Eerste Divisie has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Almere City FC have 0 in 1 this season, Jong PSV U21 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 72% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 71%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.67 for Almere City FC and 1.44 for Jong PSV U21. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City FC | 1 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Jong PSV U21 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
More: Almere City FC season stats · Jong PSV U21 season stats · Eerste Divisie table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.