Airbus UK v Ammanford AFC — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Cymru Premier · Friday, 14 August 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 53% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Airbus UK at 36%, the draw at 26% and Ammanford AFC at 38%, from expected goals of 1.36 and 1.4.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Cymru Premier has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Airbus UK have 0 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Ammanford AFC 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 57%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.36 for Airbus UK and 1.4 for Ammanford AFC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Airbus UK season stats · Ammanford AFC season stats · Cymru Premier table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.