Primera Nacional · Friday, 14 August 2026 · 19:00. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 72% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 71% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% | 89% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 37% | 63% | No |
The result model puts Acassuso at 34%, the draw at 32% and Midland at 34%, from expected goals of 0.94 and 0.92.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 30% | 29% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 70% | 71% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 2.50 | 38% | 37% | 0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Acassuso 3.80, draw 2.80, Midland 2.25.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Acassuso have 7 in 23 this season (3 of 10 at home), Midland 5 in 23 (3 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 30% and 27%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 29%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 29%, from expected goals of 0.94 for Acassuso and 0.92 for Midland. Folding in 30% of that view gives 29%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Acassuso season stats · Midland season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.