Liga Profesional · Wednesday, 12 August 2026 · 01:00. Final score 0–3 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 64% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 64% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | No |
The result model puts Talleres Cordoba at 42%, the draw at 28% and Lanus at 30%, from expected goals of 1.26 and 1.01.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 35% | 36% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 64% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 42% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Talleres Cordoba 2.40, draw 2.90, Lanus 3.40.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Talleres Cordoba have 8 in 20 this season (4 of 9 at home), Lanus 7 in 20 (4 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 37% and 35%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 35%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 34%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.26 for Talleres Cordoba and 1.01 for Lanus. Folding in 30% of that view gives 36%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talleres Cordoba | 20 | 40% | 10% | 45% |
| Lanus | 20 | 35% | 15% | 35% |
More: Talleres Cordoba season stats · Lanus season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.