Liga Profesional · Tuesday, 11 August 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 69% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 68% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 84% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 38% | 62% | No |
The result model puts Union Santa Fe at 63%, the draw at 26% and Central Cordoba de Santiago at 11%, from expected goals of 1.47 and 0.46.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Union Santa Fe have 11 in 21 this season (3 of 9 at home), Central Cordoba de Santiago 4 in 19 (1 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 40% and 26%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 33%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 32%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 31%, from expected goals of 1.47 for Union Santa Fe and 0.46 for Central Cordoba de Santiago. Folding in 30% of that view gives 32%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Santa Fe | 21 | 52% | 29% | 57% |
| Central Cordoba de Santiago | 19 | 21% | 16% | 21% |
More: Union Santa Fe season stats · Central Cordoba de Santiago season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.