Brasileirao (W) · Tuesday, 11 August 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 54% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts America Mineiro W at 18%, the draw at 33% and Flamengo W at 49%, from expected goals of 0.54 and 1.09.
The league sets the starting point. Brasileirao (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. America Mineiro W have 6 in 14 this season (0 of 7 at home), Flamengo W 6 in 14 (2 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 22%, from expected goals of 0.54 for America Mineiro W and 1.09 for Flamengo W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| America Mineiro W | 14 | 43% | 36% | 21% |
| Flamengo W | 14 | 43% | 36% | 71% |
More: America Mineiro W season stats · Flamengo W season stats · Brasileirao (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.