NWSL (W) · Monday, 10 August 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 54% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Seattle Reign FC W at 35%, the draw at 30% and Angel City W at 35%, from expected goals of 1.03 and 1.03.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Seattle Reign FC W have 9 in 16 this season (3 of 7 at home), Angel City W 10 in 16 (3 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 34%, from expected goals of 1.03 for Seattle Reign FC W and 1.03 for Angel City W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Reign FC W | 16 | 56% | 19% | 44% |
| Angel City W | 16 | 63% | 13% | 63% |
More: Seattle Reign FC W season stats · Angel City W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.