Serie B · Monday, 10 August 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 44% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Goias at 46%, the draw at 27% and Londrina at 27%, from expected goals of 1.44 and 1.04.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Goias have 7 in 20 this season (3 of 9 at home), Londrina 13 in 20 (7 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 38% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.44 for Goias and 1.04 for Londrina. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Goias season stats · Londrina season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.