Primera Division · Monday, 10 August 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 2–2). Before kick-off we rated it 60% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Deportivo Maldonado at 37%, the draw at 31% and Racing Montevideo at 32%, from expected goals of 1.02 and 0.92.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Deportivo Maldonado have 11 in 22 this season (6 of 11 at home), Racing Montevideo 6 in 22 (3 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 36%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 31%, from expected goals of 1.02 for Deportivo Maldonado and 0.92 for Racing Montevideo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Maldonado | 22 | 50% | 23% | 59% |
| Racing Montevideo | 22 | 27% | 14% | 50% |
More: Deportivo Maldonado season stats · Racing Montevideo season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.