NWSL (W) · Monday, 10 August 2026. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 53% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | no pick |
The result model puts Chicago Red Stars W at 34%, the draw at 25% and Bay FC W at 41%, from expected goals of 1.33 and 1.5.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Chicago Red Stars W have 7 in 17 this season (3 of 8 at home), Bay FC W 8 in 17 (4 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.33 for Chicago Red Stars W and 1.5 for Bay FC W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Red Stars W | 17 | 41% | 18% | 18% |
| Bay FC W | 17 | 47% | 29% | 41% |
More: Chicago Red Stars W season stats · Bay FC W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.