Liga Profesional · Monday, 10 August 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 66% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 66% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | 87% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 56% | No |
The result model puts Argentinos JRS at 47%, the draw at 33% and Racing Club at 19%, from expected goals of 1.06 and 0.57.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Argentinos JRS have 7 in 22 this season (3 of 13 at home), Racing Club 8 in 21 (4 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 31% and 35%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 33%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 40%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 23%, from expected goals of 1.06 for Argentinos JRS and 0.57 for Racing Club. Folding in 30% of that view gives 34%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentinos JRS | 22 | 32% | 14% | 41% |
| Racing Club | 21 | 38% | 10% | 52% |
More: Argentinos JRS season stats · Racing Club season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.