Primera Nacional · Monday, 10 August 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 77% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 22% | 78% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 8% | 92% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 37% | 63% | No |
The result model puts All Boys at 51%, the draw at 38% and Central Norte at 12%, from expected goals of 0.94 and 0.31.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. All Boys have 5 in 23 this season (1 of 11 at home), Central Norte 5 in 22 (4 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 23% and 28%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 26%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 13%, from expected goals of 0.94 for All Boys and 0.31 for Central Norte. Folding in 30% of that view gives 22%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Boys | 23 | 22% | 9% | 35% |
| Central Norte | 22 | 23% | 9% | 36% |
More: All Boys season stats · Central Norte season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.