Premier League · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 3–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 54% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Yelimay Semey at 46%, the draw at 27% and Irtysh at 27%, from expected goals of 1.38 and 0.98.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Yelimay Semey have 9 in 19 this season (4 of 9 at home), Irtysh 9 in 19 (5 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.38 for Yelimay Semey and 0.98 for Irtysh. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yelimay Semey | 19 | 47% | 37% | 63% |
| Irtysh | 19 | 47% | 26% | 58% |
More: Yelimay Semey season stats · Irtysh season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.