Premier Division · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 3–1 (half-time 3–0). Before kick-off we rated it 51% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Waterford at 21%, the draw at 22% and Bohemians at 57%, from expected goals of 1.11 and 1.94.
The league sets the starting point. Premier Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Waterford have 12 in 26 this season (4 of 13 at home), Bohemians 14 in 26 (8 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Head to head. These sides have met 10 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.11 for Waterford and 1.94 for Bohemians. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Waterford season stats · Bohemians season stats · Premier Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.