Brasileirao (W) · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 2–2). Before kick-off we rated it 56% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Vitória BA W at 26%, the draw at 25% and Internacional RS W at 49%, from expected goals of 1.06 and 1.56.
The league sets the starting point. Brasileirao (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vitória BA W have 10 in 14 this season (5 of 6 at home), Internacional RS W 6 in 14 (4 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.06 for Vitória BA W and 1.56 for Internacional RS W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória BA W | 14 | 71% | 50% | 36% |
| Internacional RS W | 14 | 43% | 0% | 36% |
More: Vitória BA W season stats · Internacional RS W season stats · Brasileirao (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.