Urvalsdeild · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 2–2 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 65% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Vikingur Reykjavik at 79%, the draw at 12% and IBV Vestmannaeyjar at 9%, from expected goals of 3.06 and 0.97.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vikingur Reykjavik have 13 in 17 this season (6 of 8 at home), IBV Vestmannaeyjar 11 in 17 (5 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 77%, from expected goals of 3.06 for Vikingur Reykjavik and 0.97 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 17 | 76% | 71% | 59% |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 17 | 65% | 41% | 76% |
More: Vikingur Reykjavik season stats · IBV Vestmannaeyjar season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.