Erovnuli Liga · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 57% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Spaeri at 26%, the draw at 25% and Dinamo Tbilisi at 50%, from expected goals of 1.1 and 1.63.
The league sets the starting point. Erovnuli Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Spaeri have 11 in 19 this season (5 of 9 at home), Dinamo Tbilisi 11 in 19 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.1 for Spaeri and 1.63 for Dinamo Tbilisi. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spaeri | 19 | 58% | 21% | 63% |
| Dinamo Tbilisi | 19 | 58% | 26% | 63% |
More: Spaeri season stats · Dinamo Tbilisi season stats · Erovnuli Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.