First League · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–3 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 62% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | No |
The result model puts Septemvri Sofia at 25%, the draw at 30% and CSKA Sofia at 45%, from expected goals of 0.81 and 1.19.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Septemvri Sofia have 2 in 3 this season (0 of 1 at home), CSKA Sofia 2 in 3 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 45%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 49% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 40%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 32%, from expected goals of 0.81 for Septemvri Sofia and 1.19 for CSKA Sofia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Sofia | 3 | 67% | 0% | 67% |
| CSKA Sofia | 3 | 67% | 33% | 67% |
More: Septemvri Sofia season stats · CSKA Sofia season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.