Serie A · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–2). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 49% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Santos at 46%, the draw at 29% and Atletico Paranaense at 26%, from expected goals of 1.34 and 0.92.
The league sets the starting point. Serie A has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Santos have 13 in 20 this season (6 of 11 at home), Atletico Paranaense 9 in 21 (5 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 45%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 20 and 21 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.34 for Santos and 0.92 for Atletico Paranaense. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | 20 | 65% | 40% | 75% |
| Atletico Paranaense | 21 | 43% | 14% | 48% |
More: Santos season stats · Atletico Paranaense season stats · Serie A table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.