Serie A · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 50% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Santos at 45%, the draw at 28% and Atletico Paranaense at 27%, from expected goals of 1.31 and 0.95.
The league sets the starting point. Serie A has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Santos have 13 in 20 this season (6 of 11 at home), Atletico Paranaense 9 in 21 (5 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.31 for Santos and 0.95 for Atletico Paranaense. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | 20 | 65% | 40% | 75% |
| Atletico Paranaense | 21 | 43% | 14% | 48% |
More: Santos season stats · Atletico Paranaense season stats · Serie A table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.