Liga Profesional · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 72% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 26% | 74% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10% | 90% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 39% | 61% | No |
The result model puts San Lorenzo at 30%, the draw at 34% and Huracan at 36%, from expected goals of 0.8 and 0.9.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. San Lorenzo have 3 in 20 this season (3 of 9 at home), Huracan 7 in 21 (2 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 27% and 31%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 30%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 27%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 24%, from expected goals of 0.8 for San Lorenzo and 0.9 for Huracan. Folding in 30% of that view gives 26%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Lorenzo | 20 | 15% | 10% | 35% |
| Huracan | 21 | 33% | 10% | 48% |
More: San Lorenzo season stats · Huracan season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.