Premiership · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 55% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Rangers at 47%, the draw at 24% and Hibernian at 29%, from expected goals of 1.68 and 1.28.
The league sets the starting point. Premiership has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rangers have 0 in 1 this season, Hibernian 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 60% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 55%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.68 for Rangers and 1.28 for Hibernian. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Rangers season stats · Hibernian season stats · Premiership table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.