Liga I · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 56% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Petrolul Ploiesti at 38%, the draw at 30% and Oţelul at 32%, from expected goals of 1.1 and 0.98.
The league sets the starting point. Liga I has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Petrolul Ploiesti have 1 in 3 this season (0 of 1 at home), Oţelul 2 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 32% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Head to head. These sides have met 9 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 44%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 35%, from expected goals of 1.1 for Petrolul Ploiesti and 0.98 for Oţelul. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petrolul Ploiesti | 3 | 33% | 33% | 0% |
| Oţelul | 3 | 67% | 33% | 100% |
More: Petrolul Ploiesti season stats · Oţelul season stats · Liga I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.