Primera · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 57% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts O'Higgins at 46%, the draw at 25% and Deportes Limache at 29%, from expected goals of 1.59 and 1.21.
The league sets the starting point. Primera has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. O'Higgins have 8 in 17 this season (3 of 8 at home), Deportes Limache 12 in 16 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.59 for O'Higgins and 1.21 for Deportes Limache. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O'Higgins | 17 | 47% | 24% | 47% |
| Deportes Limache | 16 | 75% | 56% | 63% |
More: O'Higgins season stats · Deportes Limache season stats · Primera table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.