Serie B · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 61% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 85% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Nautico Recife at 43%, the draw at 30% and Atletico Goianiense at 27%, from expected goals of 1.18 and 0.87.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Nautico Recife have 8 in 20 this season (3 of 9 at home), Atletico Goianiense 8 in 20 (3 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 39% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 40%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 34%, from expected goals of 1.18 for Nautico Recife and 0.87 for Atletico Goianiense. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nautico Recife | 20 | 40% | 20% | 35% |
| Atletico Goianiense | 20 | 40% | 10% | 55% |
More: Nautico Recife season stats · Atletico Goianiense season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.