Premiership · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 50% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Motherwell at 57%, the draw at 25% and Falkirk at 18%, from expected goals of 1.61 and 0.77.
The league sets the starting point. Premiership has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Motherwell have 1 in 1 this season, Falkirk 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 40% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.61 for Motherwell and 0.77 for Falkirk. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell | 1 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
| Falkirk | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Motherwell season stats · Falkirk season stats · Premiership table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.