USL Championship · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 2–5 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 55% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 7, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Monterey Bay at 34%, the draw at 28% and New Mexico United at 38%, from expected goals of 1.1 and 1.18.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Monterey Bay have 10 in 19 this season (5 of 9 at home), New Mexico United 7 in 15 (3 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.1 for Monterey Bay and 1.18 for New Mexico United. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monterey Bay | 19 | 53% | 32% | 53% |
| New Mexico United | 15 | 47% | 27% | 47% |
More: Monterey Bay season stats · New Mexico United season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.