USL Championship · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 60% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Miami FC at 46%, the draw at 21% and Las Vegas Lights at 33%, from expected goals of 2.11 and 1.78.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Miami FC have 10 in 19 this season (7 of 10 at home), Las Vegas Lights 10 in 18 (7 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 75%, from expected goals of 2.11 for Miami FC and 1.78 for Las Vegas Lights. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami FC | 19 | 53% | 37% | 53% |
| Las Vegas Lights | 18 | 56% | 33% | 72% |
More: Miami FC season stats · Las Vegas Lights season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.